Although India is the second most populous country in the world, for some years it has been experiencing a silent yet profound change: the nation’s birth rate has dropped drastically.
In 2023, around 23 million babies were born in India, a figure that contrasts with the more than 27 million registered in the year 2000, according to UN data.
This transformation, driven by cultural, social and economic changes, is reshaping India’s demographic future while presenting both opportunities and challenges.
A record-breaking decline: fertility below replacement level
For the first time, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement threshold. According to the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), Indian women now have an average of 2.0 children, a figure below the 2.1 needed to keep the population stable. This trend marks a historic turning point for a nation that for decades was synonymous with explosive population growth.
So why are Indian women having fewer children? Experts point to several key factors:
- Wider access to contraceptive methods and having more control over fertility
- Higher levels of female education
- Growth of the urban population
- A society that is gradually changing its perception of the ideal family size.
Added to this is a growing phenomenon: the delaying of marriage and motherhood. More and more women are choosing to study, work, and establish themselves before considering having children.
An uneven map: the north-south divide
Although the national figure paints a picture of decline, the trend varies radically depending on the region. For example, girls in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are leading the trend with rates below 1.8 children per woman. In contrast, women living in states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh continue to register birth rates above the national average. This disparity reflects deep differences in education levels, access to reproductive healthcare and cultural norms.
The ideal family: Is the only child becoming the new norm?
In urban areas, it is increasingly common to find families with just one child. The reasons range from the cost of living and work pressures to the desire to provide greater educational opportunities. This change in mindset among women in Surat and other cities is also linked to the growing female participation in the labour market and the search for a balance between personal and professional life.
However, it is worth noting that the decline in the birth rate is not necessarily bad news. In the short term, it could mean a “demographic dividend”, with more adults of working age and fewer dependents. However, in the long term, a troubling question arises: Is India prepared to face an aging population? Making changes at a socio-economic level will be key.
India’s future: at stake?
India is at a crossroads. The decisions taken today regarding reproductive health, education, and social protection will define the country’s course in the coming decades. Understanding and anticipating these demographic trends is not just a statistical exercise: it is essential to ensure sustainable development for all.